Maple Leafs prospect rankings: Preseason 2023 edition

It’s time to dive into the Toronto Maple Leafs’ prospect pool once again.

Before we get into the rankings, let’s establish the criteria to be eligible for this list. The player must meet each of the following:

• Exclusive rights are owned by the Maple Leafs, either by being signed or drafted by the club. A full ranking of AHL-signed players will be included in the midseason edition when I become more familiar with the new crop of players.

• They are under the age of 25. This was bumped up after previously using U24 as a cutoff.

  • This excludes players such as Joe Woll, Marshall Rifai, and Bobby McMann.

• The cutoff for experience is 50 career NHL games. This was bumped up from the previous mark of 25.

  • This means U25 skater Timothy Liljegren isn’t eligible for the ranking.

These changes were determined after doing a few Twitter polls to see who people still considered prospects. Nick Robertson’s added back to the pool while Pontus Holmberg, Keith Petruzzelli, and Nick Abruzzese remain instead of graduating.

The following are the factors considered when forming this ranking. While it isn’t a perfect science by any means, this is roughly in order of what I value most:

1. High-end potential/skill

2. Performance/production from the 2022-23 season

3. NHL readiness

4. Likelihood of making the NHL

5. Performance/production prior to the 2022-23 season

6. Quality of competition

The plus/minus change for each prospect is relative to their placement on my last long-form rankings in January 2023. The movement is also relative to prospects that remain on the list from the prior ranking. For example, a player doesn’t get a plus-one for moving up only due to a player graduating from the list, just as a player doesn’t get a minus-one for moving down the list only due to a player being added to the organization.

And a note regarding the Marlies stats referenced: I manually tracked around 30 Marlies games last season to compile some reference points on zone entries, entry defense, shot assists and chance creation, and defensive zone effectiveness, all of which at five-on-five. It’s not a complete sample, but it’s enough to get a general idea of what a player excels at and what they need to improve upon. When I mention those data points, it comes from what I tracked, not from something like InStat or an equivalent.

Before we get into the rankings, I’d be remiss if I didn’t write a little about Rodion Amirov.

Other than a few short tweets, I haven’t really written much about Amirov since his death.

That’s mainly because I didn’t know what to say. When so much of your time is spent analyzing and discussing the hockey ramifications of people, it comes as a shock to the system when something like Amirov’s diagnosis and death occurs.

When I sat down to begin the long process of putting together this lengthy annual post, it just felt wrong to not take the opportunity to write something about Rodion.

First, Amirov the hockey player. He was my ideal realistic target for the Maple Leafs at the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. I loved his game in transition and the potential of his offensive tools to complement Toronto’s core down the road. Watching what Matt Knies has done over these past few months has been a glimpse into the potential that Amirov had (albeit in a different style), but never had the chance to fulfill.

Second, Amirov the person. I never met Rodion, never interviewed him, and haven’t talked to anyone that knew him well. But from the outside, reading all the words those close to him have said and written since his death has been remarkable. Whether it’s the fight he had to survive as long as he did with a terrifying disease or his mentality throughout his grueling battle, it’s been eye-opening to learn of his fight in recent weeks.

Amirov’s diagnosis and death are a reminder that at the end of the day, hockey is just a game. None of this actually matters in the grand scheme of things. Be kind to people and respect the athletes we watch on TV, you never know what they’re going through.

Maple Leafs prospect rankings

What else is there to say about Matt Knies at this point?

He’s firmly established himself not only as an NHLer since turning pro in April but as a legitimate difference-maker in the lineup too. Knies made an impact in the postseason and has been among the Maple Leafs’ best players throughout the preseason.

It remains to be seen what he does over a full 82-game slate but if things go as currently expected, Knies will be a serious presence in Toronto’s lineup earlier than I anticipated.

I loved Knies’ game at the University of Minnesota but was cautious about the significant expectations for him once he turned pro. I anticipated Knies would sign after the national championship, get a couple of regular-season games, and ultimately be an extra forward in the playoffs.

He made so much noise in such a short amount of time that he made that an unacceptable reality. Knies wasn’t just a passenger in his minutes against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, he made plays and was noticeable night in and night out. Whether it was the eye test, the box score, or tracked data, Knies stood out no matter what you looked at during his 10 games in a Maple Leafs jersey.

Knies’ blend of size and skill is what makes him so enticing as a player. He can mix it up along the boards and handle himself in front of the net, but can just as efficiently be a puck carrier in transition, deke around defenders, and snipe past a netminder.

A consistent knock on the player I’ve seen is his skating, which I’ve never quite agreed with. Sure, Knies doesn’t have great top-end speed, but I think that’s an overrated element in the NHL, for the most part. In most situations, it’s acceleration that plays the biggest role in being an effective pro, and he’s clearly shown that that aspect of his skating is by no means a weakness.

Something to watch for this season is potential penalty trouble for Knies. He’s active in hounding pucks, both along the boards and pressuring opponents. Against faster, more intelligent players, he’ll need to be careful to not be drawn into stick infractions as he tracks back through the neutral zone.

It’s incredibly uncommon for a Toronto Maple Leafs prospect to exceed the hype when they arrive on the scene. Knies has done exactly that, let’s enjoy the ride.

I understand why a lot of people are down on Nick Robertson. At the same time, I think back to the perception of Timothy Liljegren not long ago.

Many were ready to move on from Liljegren after taking longer than expected to make the NHL and being passed on the depth chart by Rasmus Sandin. Fast forward, and he’s outlasted Sandin in Toronto and continues to look like an important piece of the team going forward.

Liljegren was 22 years old when he finally became an NHL regular. Robertson commences his Age 22 campaign this season.

Skill has never been the issue for Robertson. He has an array of lethal shots and doesn’t need much space to get it off. There’s a reason he tallied over a goal per game as an 18-year-old in the OHL. There’s a reason he scored at a 40-goal pace as a 20-year-old in the AHL.

But the guy has to find a way to stay healthy.

It comes with the way he plays. He’s 150% effort, he’s all over the ice, and he doesn’t hesitate to engage on the forecheck. As important as it is for the way he needs to play to be at his best, it can also put him in bad situations to be injured.

His motor is so high that he needs to tone it down a touch - a rare critique in hockey. I’ve been consistent on this since he turned pro and I don’t think it necessarily limits his effectiveness either. Robertson learning to slow things down and attack at different speeds would diversify his offensive game.

I’d like to see Robertson get an NHL gig out of camp. He hasn’t started a season on the Maple Leafs’ roster yet in his career and though his waiver exemption provides flexibility for a team in need of creative ways to save cap space, I just don’t see how returning Robertson helps him long-term at this point.

He’s clearly too good for the AHL. Put some faith in the player and let him show what he can do in the show from Day 1.

A glance at Topi Niemela’s stats from last season and it would be easy to assume the Finnish blue-liner’s stock is dropping. And while he didn’t reach the same offensive heights as two years ago, I’m still firmly a believer in Niemela’s talents.

Although Niemela’s production dropped from 32 points in 48 games (the most in Liiga history by a U20 defender) to just 18 points in 58 contests last season, his best attributes remain. For that reason, I still envision Niemela as a very useful defenseman in a couple of years’ time and someone with top-four upside.

When Niemela was drafted, he was lauded by then Leafs director of amateur scouting John Lilley as having “some of the best defensive instincts in the entire draft.” He also said that Niemela wasn’t someone that was “necessarily going to go on your power play.”

Since being drafted, Niemela has shown more offensive potential than initially thought of when he was taken. He excelled against his peers, winning top defenseman at the 2021 World Juniors, and as mentioned, scored at a historic rate for a junior-aged defenseman in Finland’s top league.

He’s done so by becoming a consistent activator in the offensive zone. He doesn’t have a booming shot but he’s a crafty puck handler and passer. He’s also proven Lilley wrong in that he’s quarterbacked a power play consistently the past two seasons - though I don’t believe he’ll do so in the NHL above a PP2 level.

Despite a disappointing year offensively in Finland, Niemela came to the Marlies just before the AHL playoffs began and secured a top-pairing role immediately. It took seemingly no time for him to adjust to the new league as he remained in that spot throughout the Marlies’ postseason run.

I’m looking forward to tracking Niemela defensively this season. He’s not the biggest or fastest, but he does well to limit opponents off the rush and doesn’t shy away from physical engagement. I can understand if some are lower on Niemela after a perceived down season. For me, his tools in conjunction with the premium position he plays as a right-shot defenseman are enough to keep him in the No. 3 slot for the time being.

Easton Cowan has rapidly become a fan favorite with an impressive showing through Traverse City and the NHL preseason. Considering how many questioned the selection just a handful of months earlier, it’s a quick turn of public perception for the 2023 first-rounder.

Two things can be true: Easton Cowan is a good prospect, and it was surprising to see him go that early.

My personal criticism of the pick was never about the player. I love what Cowan brings to the table, and clearly, the Maple Leafs do even more than me. He has all the qualities Toronto typically covets in the draft: He’s quick, intelligent, tenacious on the ice, flashes skill, and can be used in all situations.

My concern on draft day was that the Maple Leafs lacked draft capital and instead of trading down to accumulate more selections, opted to take a prospect that seemingly could’ve been available at least a few picks later.

Now, those concerns can never be proven right or wrong as we’ll never know if a team would’ve snagged Cowan before the Maple Leafs if they did trade down. But one thing it looks like I was certainly wrong about was Cowan’s upside.

At the draft, I liked Cowan’s style, as mentioned, but wasn’t sure he had the tools to be the top-six contributor you hope to land with a first-round pick. I saw him as someone who projected into a third-line role if he were to hit, was a bit skeptical of the selection at that time in the draft despite being a fan of the player.

After an impressive postseason run with the London Knights, Cowan’s taken that momentum and blown all expectations away through his first prospect tournament and preseason. Every time he’s put on a Maple Leafs jersey, whether against fellow top prospects, established pros, or legit NHLers, he’s looked like one of the most impactful players on the ice.

We knew about his motor and quick bursts of speed, but I’ve been pleasantly surprised by just how impressive Cowan’s skill, shot, puck-carrying ability, and defensive awareness are. He’s also done so while playing center, a shift from his usual position on the wing last season.

His recent play has shown me the upside the (obviously much more intelligent) Maple Leafs scouting staff saw in Cowan down the stretch.

As a fellow native of Strathroy, Ontario, it’s been a wild couple of weeks watching a kid from my hometown garner this much love from the Maple Leafs fanbase. I can’t wait to watch him in London this season and as a Leaf in the future.

Fraser Minten hadn’t gotten the same amount of recognition as Knies or Cowan these past couple of weeks until a recent surge has seen him on the cusp of making the team out of camp.

Minten already looks like a seasoned veteran out there alongside established pros. He plays a very responsible two-way game and has shown an ability to handle himself physically against players much older than him.

Just because he can play against NHL competition doesn’t mean he should, though. Minten’s played a secondary role throughout his WHL career in Kamloops and finally has a chance to be the top guy with the Blazers in his final season of junior. He’ll almost certainly get the captaincy and will receive the prime five-on-five opportunities that have gone to others previously.

It’s a big year for Minten to show if he’s got higher upside than what we’ve seen so far. To this point, I’ve seen a player who can become a very good third-line center but I haven’t seen consistent enough offensive flashes at even strength to say he has legitimate top-six upside. That’s why I gave the edge to Cowan - I’ve seen a bit more speed and skill from the younger teenager that indicates slightly higher potential to me.

Minten has a lethal shot that he’s primarily showcased on the power play to date. When he has space, he can rip the puck past netminders from mid-range. Finding ways to utilize this skill more often at five-on-five will be key to unlocking another level offensively.

Taking on a top role with the Blazers, I want to see Minten excel as one of the WHL’s top centers and earn a spot with Team Canada at the World Juniors.

I remain consistent in my opinion that Roni Hirvonen is among the most underrated Maple Leafs prospects. He hasn’t put up gaudy point totals in Finland, but he’s consistently improved year over year and excelled when facing his peers.

I quite like Hirvonen’s translatability to the North American game. He’s at his best winning puck battles along the boards and finding teammates around the net. I think he can be an impactful member of the Marlies immediately and can do some quality work on the cycle as a passer.

A limiting factor in the heights Hirvonen can reach is his size and lack of speed. He’s smaller at 5-foot-10 and 178 pounds, but his lower center of gravity actually helps him in the smaller areas. The main concern is the below-average speed in his game, something he’ll need to improve and overcome in the next couple of seasons.

That hasn’t stopped Hirvonen from being a possession driver in Finland for the past two years. He was 55.4% Corsi-for in 2022-23 after being at 60.9% the previous season. That bodes well for him coming to the Marlies and I think he’ll impress early in his North American debut.

Nick Moldenhauer returned to the USHL last season to ensure he was fully prepared before making the jump to the NCAA after missing the first half of his draft season due to illness and a freak injury.

He accomplished exactly that, becoming a leader on the Chicago Steel, playing all three forward positions, and seeing both his goal and point rates increase. He finished the year third in USHL scoring with 30 goals and 75 points in 55 games.

Moldenhauer now heads to the University of Michigan and continues on one of the best development paths in hockey having stops with the Steel, Wolverines, and of course, Maple Leafs.

He remains a dangerous scorer in the slot and around the net. Moldenhauer’s quick and has become a more confident puck carrier over the past year as well.

I’m looking forward to watching him against better competition and I’m curious to see if he can play well enough to earn an invite to Canada’s camp for the World Juniors.

Don’t take Pontus Holmberg’s slight drop as an indictment on the player. It’s more of a correction on my part to move some players with potential to be more impactful in an NHL lineup back ahead of Holmberg. I valued his NHL readiness a bit too much in the last one.

I love everything about the way Holmberg plays the game. He makes controlled plays in the offensive and defensive zone. He’s sneakily crafty transporting the puck and creates good looks for himself and his teammates.

The Swede was easily the biggest standout from tracking Marlies games last season. He led the sample in controlled entries per game, controlled entry percentage, and controlled zone exit percentage. Everything you want from a two-way pivot, Holmberg did in spades with the Marlies.

That said, Holmberg needs to become a better finisher if he’s going to be more than a quality fourth-liner who can fill in on a third-line in a pinch.

More of a setup man than a sniper, Holmberg’s 3.51 scoring chance contributions per game were most in the sample. He was first in chance assists and second in scoring chances himself. If Holmberg can actually score on these opportunities, rather than generating them and failing to convert, there’s still more upside to unlock for the 24-year-old.

As such, I don’t mind Holmberg returning to the Marlies to start the season. There are still things for him to build upon and utilizing his final year before requiring waivers to get him top minutes and prime offensive opportunities is smart.

This time last year I had Nikita Grebyonkin 27th on this list. Now he’s cracked the top 10.

A loan to Amur Khabarovsk saw him grab a full-time role in the KHL, where he recorded nine goals and 26 points in 45 games. That was good enough for the 19-year-old to claim KHL Rookie of the Year honors.

I didn’t know what to think of the Grebyonkin pick after the 2022 draft (just look at his ranking a year ago). Generally speaking, I’m apprehensive about MHL production, particularly from overage prospects like Grebyonkin (he went undrafted in 2021). I needed to see him excel at the professional level before getting excited about the player. Needless to say, I’m definitely there now.

Grebyonkin has a solid frame at 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds. He’s a deft playmaker, particularly around the net and from along the boards. I’d like to see him become more of a shooting threat as he continues to add muscle.

He’s a bit of an awkward, upright skater. Grebyonkin’s not slow, but his stance makes him easier to knock off the puck than he should be with his frame.

Considering his best asset is his passing from tough areas around the net and along the boards, that’s a key area to improve if he’s going to become an effective NHLer.

For the most part, Grebyonkin’s been getting top nine minutes since returning to Metallurg Magnitogorsk this season. It’s not the 16-20 minutes a night he was getting with Amur, but he’s getting to play with more talent and is constantly battling for playing time. He’s probably two-to-three years away from coming to North America, but he’s certainly a project worth keeping an eye on.

It’s hard not to be captivated by the potential Dennis Hildeby possesses.

He’s 6-foot-7 and 223 pounds, for starters. Any goaltender with today’s emphasis on size is going to grab attention when listed at those numbers. It’s not just the height that makes Hildeby exciting, however.

Since undergoing hip surgery in 2021, Hildeby’s been a difference-maker wherever he’s played. He posted a .931 save percentage at both the Under-20 and pro levels in Sweden in a small sample back in 2021-22, which made the Maple Leafs use a fourth-round pick on him despite being in his final year of draft eligibility.

Toronto then pretty much immediately signed him to an entry-level contract, too. Due to changes in the NHL-SHL transfer agreement, the Maple Leafs could only dictate where Hildeby would play in the second year of his ELC as a non-first-round prospect, necessitating a quick signing if Toronto wanted him to play in the AHL in 2023-24.

That meant Hildeby spent the 2022-23 campaign on loan in Sweden with Farjestad, where he impressed again. He had a .918 SV% in 21 games splitting starts with former Canadian Olympian and potential Tampa Bay Lightning backup Matt Tomkins. That was the best mark by a U22 goaltender in Sweden’s top league last season by a notable margin.

The 22-year-old plays a style you would anticipate for a netminder with his frame. He’s calm in the crease and lets the game come to him. You won’t often find Hildeby swimming around his crease making wild, desperate saves.

Hildeby now arrives on a full-time basis with the Marlies, where he will have a chance to compete for the starting role alongside Keith Petruzzelli.

It took me a while to come around on William Villeneuve but I’m officially on the bandwagon. He’s gone from No. 24 for me in October 2021 to the fringe of the top 10 two years later.

Villeneuve’s still very much a project, but I’ve seen enough progression in addition to the known tools to see an NHL future for him at this stage.

The Sherbrooke, Quebec native’s calling card is his offensive game. He’s a quality passer and has impressive instincts in the opposition’s zone. Villeneuve gets involved offensively and doesn’t settle for low-percentage shots.

On a per-game basis, Villeneuve ranked sixth out of eight Marlies defenders in shot attempts. Conversely, he was second among the same group in shot assists.

Villeneuve impressed me in transition. He exited the zone with control on 69.1% of his exits (second among Marlies defenders) and was also the second-best defender at limiting defensive zone turnovers. Entering the zone with control, Villeneuve did so with the highest percentage among Marlies defenders.

Much of this success came from Villeneuve’s ability to pass the puck. While he can carry the puck, his skating is among his biggest weaknesses and as such, I much prefer his skill at passing the puck rather than being a primary puck carrier.

Villeneuve will need to see the most improvement defensively to become an NHLer. He was middle of the pack in controlled entries against and denials, but his work in the defensive zone can still come a long way.

With an impressive 6-foot-2 frame, there’s a lot of potential for Villeneuve to continue to become stronger and learn how to better deal with physicality in the net front and along the boards.

Should he accomplish that over the next couple of seasons, I think there’s an effective bottom-pairing defenseman with a valuable skillset to be unlocked.

Ty Voit became the first Maple Leafs draft pick to crack the 100-point mark since Mitch Marner with his 24 goals and 105 points this past season.

It was simply a fantastic statistical year for Voit as he finished second in scoring and edged Boston Bruins prospect Matt Poitras for the most assists in the OHL.

Despite his big jump in production, his increase in scoring (80 points to 105) came exclusively on the man advantage. Voit actually had more even-strength points in 2021-22 than last year. It was his much more prolific power-play results that resulted in the jump to among the league’s top scorers.

Voit has obvious high-end skills as a passer. He’s quick and uses changes of pace to open up lanes to find his teammates in a variety of different ways. His skill set is one that excels with added space on the power play, which made his breakout on the man advantage last season almost inevitable.

While I would’ve liked to see Voit take another step at even strength last year, he was already among the league leaders in the category, so it’s not like this was a weakness by any means.

The major aspect for Voit to overcome is his size. He was listed at 5-foot-9 and 157 pounds in Maple Leafs camp a couple of weeks ago. Kailer Yamamoto was the only NHL regular listed at a lower weight last year. AHL standout Matthew Phillips came in at 5-foot-8 and 160 pounds at Capitals’ camp, while Johnny Gaudreau is listed at 5-foot-9 and 165 pounds.

It’s going to be difficult to become an NHLer at that size. Adding weight will be a must over the next couple of seasons. We’ll get a good test of how well Voit can handle the professional ranks soon, as he makes the jump to the Marlies this season.

The strengths remain strong and the weaknesses remain weak in Nick Abruzzese’s game. That’s not a bad thing considering last season was his maiden as a professional, but it does mean that his NHL projection continues to be a bit murky.

Abruzzese finished eighth in AHL rookie scoring with 16 goals and 48 points in 2022-23. A strong freshman campaign all things considered, but taking into account his advanced age, I was hoping to see a bit more progression in the back half of the year.

The Slate Hill, New York native is already 24 years old, which may be deceptively older as a 2019 draft pick who only played two years at Harvard. But Abruzzese was drafted as a double overager out of the USHL and missed a season with Harvard’s sports cancelation in 2020-21. That means he has less runway to figure things out than a typical AHL sophomore.

Abruzzese is a highly intelligent player and a deft playmaker. On those two skills, he can hold his own in an NHL top nine and contribute. He even flashed a better shot than I anticipated last season.

He’s a confident puck carrier - an expected attribute with his skill set. Abruzzese entered the offensive zone with control on 51.3% of his attempts, which ranked third among the 25 Marlies in my sample. He was similarly effective in getting the puck out of the defensive zone with control, doing so on 81.3% of his exits to rank second in the sample.

As mentioned with his intelligence, Abruzzese doesn’t settle for low percentage chances. He ranked 22nd in shot attempts per game, but seventh in scoring chances. Abruzzese particularly stood out in his creation for teammates, ranking second in shot assists and chance assists on a per-game basis. Only Pontus Holmberg and Adam Gaudette contributed to more total chances per game.

The issue comes in Abruzzese’s mobility and size. He’s far from a burner and at a light 5-foot-11, a lack of pace is a major concern regarding his projectability to the NHL. He needs to become a faster skater if he’s going to be able to make an impact at the next level.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on Abruzzese through the first couple of months to see if he can take another step on the Marlies. There are enough tools to still be intrigued by the player.

Akhtyamov had a splendid season in the Russian second-tier professional league in 2022-23, posting a league-best .943 SV% in 39 appearances. His progression since being drafted in 2020 was enough to entice the Maple Leafs to sign him to an entry-level contract on July 1.

As what was likely part of the agreement to be able to sign Akhtyamov when they did, the netminder was loaned back to his KHL team for one final year in Russia.

Akhtyamov lost out on a job in the KHL to commence the campaign, again returning to the VHL - the league he dominated a year ago. After three starts with Neftyanik, a sudden opportunity arose when both Ak Bars Kazan goaltenders became unavailable within a few days of each other.

That’s opened the door for Akhtyamov to get KHL minutes for the first time since 2021 and he’s making good on the chance. He’s posted a .914SV% in six KHL appearances and has started five straight games as of the writing of this post.

Stylistically, Akhtyamov is an excellent skater in the crease and has the ability to make spectacular movements and saves. He can get a little over his head at times when things get a bit chaotic around the goalmouth. Tidying that up - being calmer in those wild moments - is something to work on.

Tverberg’s one of the easiest players to root for in the Leafs system. A local product from Richmond Hill, Tverberg was drafted out of the OJHL in the seventh round and has emerged with NHL potential thanks to his north-south speed and relentless work ethic.

Over the past two seasons, Tverberg exploded onto the scene at the University of Connecticut and backed it up in 2022-23. After leading the Huskies in goals in back-to-back campaigns, Tverberg elected to sign an entry-level contract and forgo his senior NCAA season.

Tverberg made an impact in the NCAA with his fearless desire to score and physicality. Many times, Tverberg was able to create breakaways and odd-man opportunities with his speed. If there were ample defenders, he’d drop the shoulder and drive to the net.

He plays a power forward’s game but Tverberg’s listed at an average 6-foot, 190 pounds. I’m curious to see how his transition to the pro game goes and whether he’ll be as effective as he was in college. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him start slow and build up over the year.

I struggled with ranking Alex Steeves considering there’s a solid chance he plays the third or fourth most NHL games this season of all the players on this list.

Steeves has been an effective scorer with the Marlies for two seasons now after joining the organization as an undrafted free agent in 2021.

This is a pivotal year for Steeves’ NHL future. At this point in time, I see him as a fine recall option who can play a handful of games on your fourth line but never becomes a full-timer. There just aren’t many standout attributes to his game. He’s a hard worker but his skills are average at best pretty much across the board.

Steeves was a curious player to track this season. He touched the puck a lot but settled for uncontrolled plays too often for my liking. His 3.89 zone exits per game ranked third among forwards, but his 59.3% controlled exit percentage ranked fourth worst among the same group. Steeves’ 6.64 zone entry attempts per contest were over a full attempt more than second, but he gained the zone with control on only 31.4% of those efforts.

Attacking off the rush more consistently, rather than opting to grind it out on the forecheck and cycle as often as he does, could be a way to increase his productivity at five-on-five.

Steeves gets good looks too. He’s more of a shooter than a passer - he ranked third in the sample in scoring chances per game but eighth among forwards in chance assists.

If Steeves plays with more pace and generates more off of the rush this season under John Gruden, he might solidify a more certain NHL future. He turns 24 in December and with a lack of clearcut NHL tools, I think he’s much more likely to be a career depth forward who gets a cup of coffee in the league every year or two.

The last time I wrote one of these long-form prospect updates, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev was coming off of an NHL debut and was trending in a positive direction in his development.

Since, he plateaued in the back half of the AHL campaign and elected to return to Russia on a two-year contract with Traktor Chelyabinsk. As such, we won’t see Der-Arguchintsev in North America until at least the 2025-26 season when he’s 25 years old. The Maple Leafs hold his exclusive rights until he turns 27.

When Der-Arguchintsev was at his best in the first half, he was among the Marlies’ most involved players in breaking the puck out of the defensive zone. His controlled exits per game exceeded those of most Marlies defensemen and was a key component of his playing with confidence.

Der-Arguchintsev is so elusive with the puck on his stick and is a wizard at gaining the zone when he has space to work with. His ability to enter the zone on the man advantage is one of his best skills. He’s a superb passer and has continuously improved his shot year after year.

At 23 years of age, Der-Arguchintsev remains an intriguing project given his high-end skills. That said, it’s becoming harder and harder to see him becoming the top-nine player he’ll need to be in order to be effective in the NHL. He’ll have two seasons to take that next step in the KHL before contemplating a return to North America.

If Dennis Hildeby is the calm goaltending prospect and Artur Akhtyamov is neutral, Slava Peksa happily takes the crown as the eccentric netminder in the system.

An impressive find by now-former Leafs employee Jon Elkin while keeping tabs on Akhtyamov, Peksa put himself on the radar in his post-draft campaign when he put up a .936 SV% in the Russian junior league.

Last season, he made the jump to the VHL with Ak Bars Kazan’s affiliate and again impressed. He had a .921 SV% in 40 appearances - better totals than what Akhtyamov accomplished with the same team at the same age.

Peksa plays a very athletic style. He makes aggressive decisions and has the athleticism to bail himself out when things go south. As he faces tougher and tougher competition, ironing out the kinks in his decision-making will be vital.

It shows in his personality too. Little glimpses of Peksa’s unique character include jumping into a video game fighting stance while players meleed around his crease and fist-bumping the glass as goal scorers passed by while stuck in goalie jail as the backup.

I’m sure we’ll get more moments like those that’ll make Peksa a favorite as he makes the jump to North America. It’s unclear whether he’ll remain with the Marlies, or Growlers, or receive a loan elsewhere for playing time. I’m quite excited to see how he performs regardless of where he’s getting his playing time.

I doubt Max Ellis will ever be a top-nine play driver in the NHL. That being said, I still have a lot of time for the player and think he can have an NHL career.

Ellis’ speed consistently stands out when watching him play. It’s a necessary attribute as a small winger without high-end skill, but it’s an impressive aspect of his game regardless.

That speed in conjunction with a hard-working mentality as an effective forechecker makes me believe in Ellis as a potential fourth-line waterbug type that’s super annoying to play against. With his skill set, I also think he can be a quality penalty killer.

He’s already 23 and will turn 24 midseason, so we’ll need to see some notable improvement offensively from Ellis as a sophomore with the Marlies.

New Marlies head coach John Gruden seems to be a fan. He lauded Ellis’ speed and effort after the first game in Traverse City and gave him an opportunity high in the lineup the following contest.

I’ll be keeping a keen eye on his usage out of the gate with the Marlies, I’m like his game even if he does top out as a fun AHLer after all.

If you’ve been following along over the past couple of years, it’s no secret that I’ve been a fan of Mikey Koster’s game for a while. He’s always stood out to me with his mobility and puck-moving skill whenever he’s gotten a chance higher in the University of Minnesota’s lineup.

After two and a half years in a supplementary role with the Golden Gophers, Koster rose up the lineup in the back half of the campaign to more than double his previous career high in scoring. He tallied six goals and 29 points in 40 games over the full year, with a very impressive 16 in his final 14 contests.

As Brock Faber, Jackson LaCombe, and Ryan Johnson all turn pro, Koster becomes “the guy” on Minnesota’s blue-line. He’ll do so in 2023-24 donning a ‘C’ on his jersey as a co-captain with forward Jaxon Nelson.

I fully expect a big year from Koster that lines him up for an entry-level contract at the end of the season.

The goal for Brandon Lisowsky in 2023-24: Earn an NHL contract.

The 2022 seventh-rounder sees his exclusive rights expire in June. After a 33-goal draft year and potting 38 last season, Lisowsky’s target will be to hit the 40-goal mark in what could be his last season in junior.

Lisowsky drops partially because his production slipped slightly in the back half of the year, but more so because I got a little too high on the prospect.

I love Lisowsky’s shot - he can rifle the puck and he looked good at Toronto’s development camp and prospect tournament. He’s definitely on the smaller side, however, and I need to see another step from him offensively to believe he maintains NHL upside. A dominant season in the WHL would do just that.

Keith Petruzzelli was unexpectedly upgraded to an NHL contract from an AHL-only deal midseason when the Maple Leafs desperately needed a healthy goaltender.

Put aside the situation Toronto was in, Petruzzelli was deserving of an NHL contract anyway. He performed well with the Newfoundland Growlers in 2021-22 and played much better than the more experienced Erik Kallgren with the Marlies last season.

Petruzzelli’s massive at 6-foot-6 but has struggled to put on weight. It was good to see him listed at 190 pounds - up 10 pounds from last year’s listing - at Toronto’s camp. The Maple Leafs’ staff was one of the selling points to get Petruzzelli on an AHL deal in 2021.

I saw an interesting post from Leafs Nation News regarding the parallels between Petruzzelli and Joe Woll recently. Both were drafted in the third round (Petruzzelli was taken by the Red Wings and not signed). Woll had a .907 SV% in 2021-22, while Petruzzelli posted a .909 SV% at the same age last season.

Petruzzelli has a strong chance to be the primary starter with the Marlies this season. He’ll need a big breakout like Woll did if he’s going to remain an NHL prospect as he turns 25 in February.

Hudson Malinoski was a fascinating selection in the 2023 fifth round. Despite being drafted in his second year of eligibility, Malinoski only has two years of elite-level hockey under his belt.

Malinoski played his initial draft year in the Saskatchewan AAA league. His development path was essentially pushed back a year due to a freak snowboarding injury that left him with a concussion and a torn vertebral artery that required potentially career-ending surgery.

The Saskatoon native made the jump to the AJHL as an 18-year-old last season and he thrived, tallying 16 goals and 69 points in 44 games. He makes the jump to the NCAA this fall with Providence College.

A left-shot center, Malinoski has a solid frame at 6-foot-1 and 184 pounds and is very shifty laterally.

Malinoski’s shot stands out at first watch despite scoring significantly more assists last year. He can rip the puck and fired some sweet goals with an array of finishes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pop some solid goal totals on a Providence team that’s losing its top two scorers.

The Maple Leafs finally took its first blue-liner since 2020 in Noah Chadwick at the 2023 draft.

Looking at his stats from 2022-23 - 20 points in 67 WHL games - it would be easy to assume the 6-foot-4 defenseman has low upside and minimal offensive instincts.

You’d just be very wrong.

Chadwick’s an intriguing long-term development project. He has an exciting frame and plays a style that meshes with the Maple Leafs’ philosophy. Chadwick gets involved in the offensive zone - he activates into the play and uses deceptive fakes to try to create passing lanes.

Defensively, Chadwick’s reach allows him to be a disruptor in the neutral zone and he has the size to be a good in-zone defender too.

Skating is the biggest hurdle to overcome for Chadwick. He’s got some decent edges but will need to add speed to his game in order to unlock his offensive potential and be able to keep up against better opponents.

As a sixth-round pick, there’s a lot to like in Chadwick’s profile as a low-risk, high-reward prospect. He’s among the prospects I’m most interested in watching this season.

Mikko Kokkonen might’ve been the hardest prospect to rank for this edition.

A few weeks ago, I didn’t think twice about having Kokkonen in the back half of the 20s. He was a five-year pro in Finland who stagnated in his progression and failed to show positive developments over the course of his maiden campaign in North America.

Kokkonen struggled to make an impact in the Marlies lineup and saw a demotion to the ECHL early in the year and to finish off the season. He ranked near the bottom of my tracked data and didn’t show many flashes.

Then came Traverse City and the NHL preseason, where Kokkonen has looked like a very different player. He’s played with a confidence he didn’t have last year, being much more noticeable offensively at the prospect tournament and holding his own throughout the preseason.

He’s impressed Sheldon Keefe enough to stick around as one of the final cuts.

“He’s been very, very solid all the way through,” Keefe said, according to TSN’s Mark Masters. “You look at where he was last year to now, it’s been remarkable ... he’s been kind of under the radar, but every day he’s been very solid.”

Whether he can maintain that momentum into the season remains to be seen, but it seems as though Kokkonen has figured something out that wasn’t there the past few years. As an average-sized, average skating, below-average skilled player, it’s a necessary development if he’s going to get back on track as an NHL prospect before he turns 23 in January.

Dmitry Ovchinnikov is one of the Marlies I’m most fascinated to watch this season.

I loved what Ovchinnikov brought to the table with his immense speed and skill while decimating the Russian junior league. Finally getting regular KHL shifts last season - even if it was as a fourth liner - Ovchinnikov didn’t really do much to earn more minutes. He made some a few plays over the year and had some solid on-ice results, but never forced Sibir Novosbirsk’s hand to play him more.

Now coming to the Marlies on a full-time basis, the 21-year-old still remains an enigma against better competition. I could see Ovchinnikov spending the bulk of the year in the ECHL or just as easily breaking into the Marlies’ top six if given the opportunity. I truly don’t have a good read on what to expect from Ovchinnikov this year.

Braeden Kressler’s missed a lot of hockey over the past three years. He didn’t play at all in 2020-21 due to the OHL’s canceled campaign. He then missed 42 games in 2021-22 due to among other ailments, a torn UCL. Then, Kressler was out for 27 contests last season.

It’s not just during the OHL season either. Kressler was unavailable at the 2022 Traverse City prospect tournament and has been out throughout Maple Leafs camp this year after getting hurt in the opener at Traverse City this year.

That’s a lot of game action to miss out on during some of the most important development time in a player’s career. And despite all of that, I still think there’s a player in Kressler.

Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2021, Kressler flashed impressive skill, speed, and a strong work ethic at Toronto’s development camp and prospect tournament that year to earn a contract.

After a disappointing 2021-22 year, Kressler became an impact player with the Flint Firebirds last season, scoring 25 goals and 52 points in 47 games.

Simply put, he’s got to stay healthy. You're just not going to become an NHL player as a depth prospect if you miss this much time year in, year out. This recent setback appears to be a minor one and we’ll see him either with the Marlies, Growlers, or back in the OHL for an overage campaign before long.

If Miettinen can find a way to utilize his shot more often at five-on-five, he’ll vault way back up this list into the top-15 spot he used to possess.

I was a big fan of Miettinen in his draft year and especially after his freshman year at St. Cloud State. After all, he had record production in the Finnish junior league and led a top program in the Huskies in scoring as a 19-year-old.

Since those impressive campaigns, Miettinen’s development has stalled. I haven’t seen him improve or round out his game in any meaningful capacity and as such, his projection pretty much remains top six or bust. He’s a scorer through and through, but I haven’t seen enough from him to show that he can be that type of player and win a job in the NHL.

That’s not to say you should forget about Miettinen. He has a weapon of a shot, he just seems to not get in locations to utilize it often enough. There’s absolutely no reason someone with his wrist shot should have a career-high of 12 goals in the NCAA.

My comparison for Miettinen in the past year or two has been Buffalo Sabres forward Victor Olofsson. The Swede is a flawed player, but he’s earned a role in the league by using his lethal shot to convert on power-play opportunities. There’s a chance Miettinen could still develop into a comparable asset, it’s just not particularly likely at this stage.

I hope he has a huge year at St. Cloud State and earns an NHL contract at the end of the season. I think he’s worth keeping around on at least an AHL contract, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in a different system this time next year.

Joe Miller’s decision to delay his collegiate career by one year paid dividends. He played a top role in the USHL in 2022 which set him up to immediately step into a top-six role at Harvard as a freshman.

Miller impressed as an NCAA rookie, producing 13 goals and 28 points in 33 games. His plus-27 rating was tops for Harvard.

I’m intrigued by Miller. He’s very small - listed at 5-foot-9 and 160 pounds - and plays an intelligent game and is quite elusive. He’s going from a complementary piece to a vital component of Harvard’s lineup with Sean Farrell, Matt Coronato, Alex Laferriere, and John Farinacci all turning pro.

I do have some concerns over regression - which is why I’m hesitant to jump him way up the rankings. His 26% shooting percentage was second in the entire NCAA and he got to play with some of the top talent in the country.

If Miller can replicate his success in a bigger role without the help of those aforementioned studs, he’ll certainly move up this list. For now, I still need to see a bit more before truly getting on board.

John Fusco has been a curious case to follow. Despite being drafted in 2020, Fusco’s 2022-23 campaign was essentially his first full season against top competition.

He was drafted as an overage prospect out of high school and had his NCAA career delayed when Harvard canceled its 2020-21 season due to COVID. He played a half season in the USHL before joining the Crimson the following year, where he played minimal minutes in a bottom-pairing and extra defenseman role.

As a result, his transfer to Dartmouth last season was the first opportunity for Fusco to play a legitimate role over a full campaign at a level higher than high school. He had a fine season - 11 points in 22 games on one of the weakest teams in the ECAC - and continued to flash some offensive upside.

Ultimately, Fusco’s still a small blue-liner who hasn’t shown much yet and is entering his Age-22 season. He has some tools that could still put him on the radar, but we need to see it very soon if he’s going to become a notable prospect at all.

It’s been a really rough go for Schingoethe at Western Michigan University. He failed to record a point as a freshman and then only got into nine games last season. He wasn’t at development camp this summer if that says anything.

The Broncos have typically been a veteran team, so maybe he will find a role in the next two years and surprise. I’m not holding my breath.

Kizimov got a legit stint in the KHL - the first of his career - to finish the year after a loan to Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk. Putting up 15 points in 22 games, I can understand why some may see that and be intrigued by the player as a potential late bloomer.

I don’t see it. It seems like Kizimov’s sudden production was more circumstance than anything. He got a few bounces to go his way and got an opportunity on a team that was lacking in scoring. Early in 2023-24, it appears to be the case, as he’s returned to a better team in Yekaterinburg and hasn’t done anything.